How Reform won votes from Swansea to Sunderland

"We're taking a chance."

At the Caerphilly social club in Wales on Friday night, Bernard and Linda articulated the risk they were embracing.

"With Labour, I think you get nowhere," Linda conveyed during an interview with BBC Radio 4's Today programme. Bernard added, "They're not the working class now."

Similar sentiments echo among thousands of voters from Sunderland to Swansea who have shifted their allegiance to Reform UK, resulting in significant setbacks for the traditional two-party system.

In Wales, Labour, which has enjoyed a century-long dominance, now holds only nine out of 96 Senedd seats. In contrast, Reform has ascended from having virtually no representation to securing 34 Senedd seats, while in Scotland, the party attained 17 MSPs.

For north-east England, the local election results, which surpassed even Reform’s expectations, proved catastrophic for Labour.

National and Local Factors

Both Labour and Reform concur that national trends played a vital role in this electoral outcome. Voters expressed a pervasive discontent with the government and a particular aversion toward the prime minister. Reform effectively reframed the election as a referendum on Sir Keir Starmer, overshadowing any positive messages Labour attempted to promote at the local level. Concerns regarding small boat crossings also contributed to voter sentiment against Labour.

However, this phenomenon may extend beyond a mere repudiation of the current Prime Minister, suggesting a deeper underlying issue.

While national politics undeniably influenced voter behavior, distinct local factors also significantly contributed to these results.

Incumbency has presented challenges for government officials, while also compounding issues for local councils. Labour had believed that its local authorities were starting to effectuate positive change following the austerity measures that devastated the region.

Nonetheless, residents have faced 15 years of service cuts accompanied by rising council taxes, which rank among the highest in the country. Except for Hartlepool, Labour councils in the region recently raised bills by nearly an additional 5%.

Historically, Labour councils could direct criticism toward Conservative or coalition governments; however, there was no alternative scapegoat this time.

In Sunderland, voters recognized the recent efforts toward regeneration but felt that such initiatives could not compensate for the preceding 50 years of neglect.

Too little, too late, as some expressed.

The Gateshead Flyover and Broader Neglect

The closure of a deteriorating motorway flyover in Gateshead, which connects the town to Newcastle, epitomized a sense of abandonment. The flyover was shut down in December 2024 due to safety concerns, with demolitions only commencing midway through the election campaign.

While the Labour council may not have been solely responsible for the flyover’s condition, they bore the brunt of public dissatisfaction. Many residents voiced their skepticism regarding the council's capacity to fulfill the promised regeneration following the flyover's demolition.

Warning Signs Before 2026

The warning signals for Labour have been evident for some time. In the 2024 general election, Labour appeared to regain its historical foothold in the North East, winning nearly all but one constituency.

However, the majorities held by the MPs were notably tenuous, with Reform placing a strong second in many districts—even with relatively low-profile candidates and little to no grassroots campaigning.

This indicated a potential opportunity for a more focused campaign.

Deeper Economic Problems

Since the 2008 financial crisis, no government has successfully addressed the primary issue: how to return to an era when individuals with modest and low incomes felt they were gradually enhancing their economic well-being instead of grappling with an escalating cost of living.

When Labour cautioned against the risks of empowering councils with inexperienced Reform candidates, voters countered with the question: what was there to lose?

This sentiment mirrored that of the 2016 Brexit referendum, where North-East voters frequently replied that conditions could not possibly worsen when discussing the risks of leaving the EU.

When the established political parties seem disconnected from the needs of the community, the perceived risk of supporting a different option diminishes.

During this election, North-East voters conveyed a desire for a fresh perspective to bring about change.

There exists a risk for Labour that these electoral defeats signify not just a temporary setback but the beginning of a more pronounced decline in a region that has long been a stronghold.

Reform's Scale and Resources

Furthermore, Nigel Farage's party has cultivated a robust operation capable of attracting not just disenchanted Labour voters.

In areas like Essex, Suffolk, and Havering, Reform UK also performed strongly in previously Conservative-dominated regions.

The scale of this operation can, in part, be attributed to the substantial financial backing from its donors. In the final quarter of the previous year, Reform UK garnered over £5.4 million in large donations, more than any other political party, according to the latest figures from the Electoral Commission. This included a significant £3 million contribution from cryptocurrency investor and aviation entrepreneur Christopher Harborne.

This financial influx has afforded Farage the flexibility to invest heavily in targeted social media advertising, directing specific messages to particular demographics and areas.

Reform UK is benefitting from an overarching resentment toward politics; many citizens feel that the government is failing in crucial areas, from the NHS to economic stability and immigration control.

As a result, as expressed by Bernard and Linda, and echoed by voters across the North-East and beyond, an increasing number are ready to "take a chance" on a party that has not been in power for an extended duration.

Challenges Ahead

A significant challenge for Reform lies in the substantial number of individuals who oppose Farage so strongly that they are willing to support whichever party seems best positioned to thwart him.

However, early indicators suggest that the strategy to 'Stop Reform' may have its limits. For instance, in Wigan, ward-by-ward electoral results indicate that the combined votes for Labour, the Greens, and the Liberal Democrats often fell short of surpassing Reform UK.

This scenario presents immense opportunities for Reform UK, as evidenced by their performance in this election.

From Basildon to Barnsley, Walsall to Wakefield, and Thurrock to Tamworth, they have delivered a significant rebuke to the historically dominant Labour and Conservative parties.

This positions Farage with a larger pool of councillors, volunteers, and activists to leverage leading into the next general election.

However, challenges remain. Labour has experienced first-hand the difficulty of promising change while in opposition, as governing requires a different standard of accountability.

In more instances than not, Reform UK is no longer perceived as the insurgent force; they are now finding themselves in the role of incumbents.