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Recent developments have significantly clarified Andy Burnham's path to a return to Parliament.
The resignation of a Labour MP has opened a window for the Greater Manchester mayor to position himself as a parliamentary candidate.
During the last instance, prior to the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year, Sir Keir Starmer exercised his influence over Labour's National Executive Committee to prevent Burnham from standing. However, this time, Number 10 has signaled that it will not impede his candidacy.
In light of a week where nearly a third of the party, including the health secretary and four ministers, called for the Prime Minister to resign, it is improbable that Sir Keir would hold the authority to repeat his previous actions.
Thus, another obstacle has been removed from Burnham's path.
The major challenge that remains is whether he can secure the seat.
In the last general election two years ago, Reform UK finished second to Labour, capturing just under a third of the vote. Yet, in the recent elections, Makerfield—where Burnham aims to become MP—saw Reform decisively outperform Labour, winning all 11 wards and garnering around half of the vote in the constituency.
Nigel Farage has publicly committed to directing substantial resources to this race.
As Burnham prepares for what is expected to be a contentious and fierce battle with Reform, there are early indicators of a truce forming within the ranks of Labour.
Josh Simons, the Labour MP for Makerfield who is stepping down to facilitate Burnham's candidacy, does not belong to the same faction of the party as Burnham. Simons is a close ally of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, whose immigration policies have generated considerable controversy among the Labour left. Furthermore, he previously led the think tank Labour Together, which is closely associated with the party's right wing and played a significant role in ushering Sir Keir into leadership.
It is noteworthy that Simons, who is not typically aligned with Burnham, chose to resign for his advantage.
Supporters of Burnham are quick to label him a "unity" candidate. They anticipate that this will exert additional pressure on Sir Keir to establish a timetable for his exit from Downing Street.
Conversely, members from various factions within Labour have privately suggested that they would also throw their support behind Burnham for leader if he succeeds in the by-election, including individuals who had previously backed rival leadership candidates.
One minister remarked, "I think Josh [Simons] has just single-handedly given the Labour Party a route to winning back the trust of the British people."
When asked about their support for Burnham as a potential leader, the minister replied, "If he wins [the by-election], we all are."
Another minister, who had shown support for Sir Keir as recently as Wednesday, stated, "It's Burnham now, if he can beat Reform."
An MP from the right of the party described Simons's decision as "politically brave," asserting that it enables the party to definitively address whether Andy Burnham is the right candidate for Prime Minister.
Labour Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, a close confidant of Burnham, is expected to affirm her support for him on Friday.
"Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner should all be key players in our team," she is anticipated to state.
"Andy is eager to return to Parliament—I have consistently supported his ambition to do so, and I reaffirm that support now. As Deputy Leader, I am confident he would have the backing of the vast majority of the Party and movement in pursuing this goal."
However, this perspective is not universally accepted.
Luke Akehurst, a prominent figure on the right within the Labour Party, cautioned, "This level of internal game playing risks driving us into a General Election within months, as well as causing months of deep political instability that have real-world consequences for the economy and national security. I am, to put it mildly, unimpressed."
Another voice commented, "It is disgraceful behavior by both of them [Simons and Burnham]. We are the Labour Party. We are not about one person or their ego."
The immediate ramifications are likely to manifest as paralysis within the government. As it stands, Sir Keir is resolute in his position and communicates to allies his intent to contest any leadership challenge that may arise.
However, the focus will soon shift to the upcoming by-election in Makerfield.
This contest may take on an unusual dynamic. A former party strategist suggested that Burnham's most viable campaign strategy may be to present himself as the candidate who can facilitate the removal of Sir Keir from Downing Street.
Alternatively, if Burnham's allies' hopes materialize, and Sir Keir has already set a date for his departure, Burnham will need to challenge the record of the current government while promising to address prior mistakes and pivot towards a more ambitious and innovative agenda.
This by-election serves as the greatest test yet for a leader who has previously attempted to secure the Labour leadership on two occasions. A failure to win could signal the end of Burnham’s long-standing ambitions.
Conversely, a victory would demonstrate his ability to attract voters who have shifted towards Reform, contrasting with Sir Keir, who has overseen declining poll numbers.
The stakes are high, with the Labour leadership and a potential future in Number 10 on the line.
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