BBC
Two significant obstacles on Andy Burnham's pathway to re-enter Parliament have been successfully navigated.
The resignation of a Labour MP has paved the way for the Greater Manchester mayor to express his candidacy for the parliamentary role.
In the previous instance this occurred—prior to the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year—Sir Keir Starmer leveraged his authority and influence over Labour's ruling National Executive Committee to prevent Burnham from standing.
However, recently, the Prime Minister's office has suggested that such a blockade will not occur this time around.
In light of a tumultuous week where nearly a third of the party, including the health secretary and four other ministers, called for the Prime Minister’s resignation, it seems improbable that Sir Keir would possess the political capital to repeat his past actions.
This leaves another obstacle out of Burnham's path.
The primary question now is: can he secure victory in the seat?
In the last general election, Reform UK secured second place behind Labour, obtaining just under a third of the vote.
Yet, in the recent elections, Makerfield—where Burnham is anticipated to run as the Labour candidate—saw Reform UK decisively outperform Labour, winning all 11 wards and capturing nearly half the votes in the constituency.
Nigel Farage has publicly committed to exerting substantial effort in this campaign.
As preparations intensify for what is expected to be a contentious and fierce contest against Reform, preliminary signs suggest a potential ceasefire in Labour's internal conflict.
Josh Simons, the Labour MP for Makerfield, who is vacating his position to facilitate Burnham's candidacy, does not share the same ideological alliances as Burnham.
Simons is closely aligned with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, whose contentious immigration policies have drawn ire from the party’s left flank. Additionally, he previously directed the think tank Labour Together, which is associated with the party’s right wing, a pathway that significantly contributed to Sir Keir's ascent to party leader.
Thus, it is particularly noteworthy that Simons, not a traditional ally of Burnham, has chosen to step aside in his favor.
Supporters of Burnham are quick to label him as a "unity" candidate, hoping this will increase pressure on Sir Keir to expedite his exit from Downing Street.
Conversely, various individuals across different factions within Labour have privately suggested that they would now rally behind Burnham for the leadership, contingent upon his success in the by-election. This includes members previously aligned with other leadership contenders.
One minister remarked: "I believe Josh [Simons] has singularly provided the Labour Party with a means to regain the trust of the British public."
When questioned about their support for Burnham as a potential leader, the minister affirmatively stated: "If he wins [the by-election], we all are."
Another minister, who had recently expressed support for Sir Keir’s continued leadership, stated: "It’s Burnham now, if he can overcome Reform."
Additionally, an MP from the right of the party described Simons' decision as "politically courageous" and asserted that it "permits us to definitively assess whether Andy Burnham is indeed the right candidate for Prime Minister."
Labour Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, a close ally of Burnham, is poised to publicly express her support for him on Friday.
"Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting, and Angela Rayner should all be vital contributors to our collective effort," she is anticipated to declare.
"Andy is eager to return to Parliament—I have consistently endorsed his aspirations, and I reiterate that support now. As Deputy Leader, I am confident he would enjoy the backing of the vast majority of the Party and the movement in pursuing this goal."
However, this support is not universally shared.
Luke Akehurst, a notable figure on the Labour Party's right wing, warned: "This level of internal maneuvering risks propelling us into a General Election within a short timeframe, alongside instigating prolonged political instability that could yield tangible repercussions for both the economy and national security. To put it mildly, I find this situation unconvincing."
Another individual criticized the actions of both Simons and Burnham, stating: "Such behavior is disgraceful. We are the Labour Party, not an organization centered around individual egos."
In the immediate future, this scenario may lead to a stagnation in government operations. Currently, Sir Keir remains resolute about not resigning and has communicated to allies his intent to contest any leadership challenge should one arise.
Nonetheless, attention will swiftly shift to the upcoming by-election in Makerfield.
This contest is likely to be unusual. One former party strategist suggested that the only viable campaign strategy for Burnham may involve positioning himself as the alternative to Sir Keir in Downing Street.
Alternatively, if Burnham's allies envision a scenario where Sir Keir has preemptively announced a departure timeline, he would need to run on the record of the current government, advocating for a departure from previous errors and presenting a more audacious and innovative agenda.
This upcoming election represents a significant test for a leader who has previously contested the Labour leadership twice. Failure to win could signal the end of Burnham's long-held aspirations.
Achieving victory may affirm his capability to attract some voters who have shifted towards Reform back to Labour—contrasting sharply with Sir Keir’s leadership, which has been marked by declining poll numbers.
Securing the seat could very likely position Burnham for the Labour leadership and a potential role at Number 10.
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