Labour expected to lose Senedd after century of winning Welsh elections

Multiple party sources have indicated to the BBC that Labour is anticipated to lose the upcoming Senedd election, marking the end of its 27-year dominance in Wales.

For over a century, Labour has been victorious in both Westminster and Cardiff Bay elections, but recent opinion polls have indicated that Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are both competing aggressively for the leading position.

A former minister in the Welsh government posited that should the results align with unfavorable predictions, UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer should consider resigning as prime minister.

The polling closed at 22:00 BST on Thursday, with vote counting scheduled for Friday. BBC Wales will provide comprehensive coverage of the results across online platforms, television, and radio.

While Labour's defeat has been largely anticipated due to lackluster performances in recent polling, a significant loss in Wales would carry profound political ramifications.

Historic significance

Plaid Cymru and Reform UK have framed the election as a competitive two-party race, urging voters to support their candidacies over others.

The number of seats secured by either party heightens their prospects of governing independently or facilitating simpler coalition agreements with other political entities.

Given Wales' newly established proportional voting framework, it is unlikely that any party will secure a majority of 49 out of the 96 Senedd seats; however, Dan Thomas, the Welsh leader of Reform, expressed optimism about his party's chances of achieving this goal.

Mick Antoniw, a former Welsh counsel general, told BBC Wales that this election represents the most challenging period for Labour "in living memory." He noted that discussions seemed more focused on issues relating to Downing Street and immigration than on the specific needs of Wales.

"We must ensure that Wales has a progressive and stable government, which will likely necessitate responsible partnerships," Antoniw stated, as he did not seek re-election on Thursday.

When asked about the possibility of Sir Keir continuing as prime minister, Antoniw remarked, "If the results are as dire as expected, a change in leadership will have to be considered. This should not be an immediate removal but rather a planned, orderly, and transparent transition alongside an open contest."

Labour's crisis

Several Welsh Labour MPs conveyed to BBC Wales that they do not foresee an immediate challenge to Sir Keir, despite one frontbench MP describing the mood as "at rock bottom."

Many called for a more daring policy approach and stressed the need for lessons to be learned from this election cycle.

First Minister Eluned Morgan consistently mentioned during the campaign that Sir Keir was "not on the ballot paper." However, when probed on Wednesday regarding his potential to remain if Labour faced defeat in Wales, she declined to engage in "speculation."

Labour insiders informed BBC Wales throughout the campaign that Prime Minister Starmer received negative feedback from constituents at their doors.

Although there was a "grudging" acknowledgment of his effective handling of the UK's response to the Iran war, sentiments had been undermined by the controversy surrounding Lord Mandelson, according to party sources.

Nigel Farage initiated Reform's campaign by labeling the election a "referendum on Starmer."

Historical context

Keir Hardie, a founder of the modern Labour party, served as MP for Merthyr Tydfil from 1900 to 1915. Since 1922, Labour has emerged as Wales' largest party in every general election.

Additionally, Labour has maintained a winning streak in all Welsh elections since the establishment of the Senedd's predecessor, the National Assembly for Wales, in 1999.

The party has dominated Welsh governance since then, overseeing policies related to health, education, transport, and local government.

Should the anticipated defeat be confirmed, Labour in Wales will likely enter a period of introspection and strategic reorientation to regain voter confidence.

Nevertheless, depending on the results from Friday, Labour might still engage in negotiations with Plaid Cymru and other parties to potentially form the next Welsh government.

The outcome of the Welsh election is also poised to impact the future of the prime minister, particularly as Labour prepares for challenging local elections in England and the forthcoming election for the Scottish Parliament.

On Thursday evening, Plaid Cymru expressed pride in the positive and disciplined campaign pursued across Wales.

"Throughout this election, we have detected a notable desire for change. The people are looking for a government that will advocate for Wales and concentrate intensely on the key issues affecting their lives," the party affirmed.