John Curtice: Election results show politics in the UK has fragmented

Sir John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University

The recent local election results have decisively underscored the current fragmentation of electoral politics in Britain.

Reform UK emerges as the clear victors, having secured the most seats, accounting for 30% of those declared thus far.

In an analysis of over 500 wards from which the BBC has compiled detailed voting data, Reform UK has garnered an average vote share of 26%. While this figure may not be particularly high, it nonetheless places the party well ahead of its competitors.

Nigel Farage's party has found its strongest support in regions that exhibited a robust backing for Brexit during the 2016 referendum. In wards where over 60% of voters chose Leave in 2015, Reform UK's average support reaches 41%.

Conversely, in areas where less than 49% supported Brexit, Reform UK achieved an average of just 10%. Notably, the party has taken control of Newcastle-under-Lyme, a council that voted nearly two-to-one in favor of Brexit.

The performance of the Green Party, while less pronounced, shows promising signs. The party has averaged 16% of the vote in the wards reported so far, which aligns with their polling standing.

However, this marks a seven-point increase in support compared to the local elections held in 2022, and their performance prior to the 2024 general election.

These trends suggest that the Greens are on track for their strongest local election outcome to date. Yet, to date, they have only achieved a net gain of 25 seats, having secured a number of notable second and third places but relatively few firsts.

In stark contrast, both the Labour and Conservative parties are experiencing significant declines in support.

Labour's average vote has fallen by 16 points compared to 2022, and by an even steeper 19 points relative to 2024. The decline is particularly pronounced in areas where the party previously held substantial support and in wards with significant Muslim populations.

This trend has contributed to Labour's erosion of seats, amounting to a loss of 250 seats, which represents half of all the seats it was aiming to defend. The party has lost control of eight councils so far.

Meanwhile, the Conservative Party has also faced a decrease in support, averaging an 11-point decline since 2022 and a 9-point drop since 2024, a period during which it had already experienced considerable unpopularity.

Support for the Conservatives has particularly diminished in areas where Reform UK has found its strongest backing, underscoring the competitive threat posed to Kemi Badenoch's party.

To date, the Conservatives have incurred a net loss of 137 seats, an impact amplified by their losses in regions where they previously enjoyed their strongest footholds.

However, a single positive development for the Conservatives is their reclamation of Westminster—a once-coveted stronghold that Labour seized in 2022.

This success, however, can be attributed to a dramatic 17-point decrease in Labour support rather than any significant improvement by the Conservative Party itself, which saw its own tally decline by five points in what remains one of the few Conservative-Labour battlegrounds.

The Liberal Democrats had anticipated considerable gains; however, these have not materialized as expected.

The party has taken control of Portsmouth and Stockport but lost Hull. Their overall support on average has decreased by three points compared to both 2022 and 2024.

Seat gains have primarily been facilitated in locales where the party started in second place, allowing them to capitalize on the sharp declines in Conservative or Labour support. Nonetheless, there is little indication that the party has achieved the electoral advancements seen by Reform or even the Greens.

It is important to note that election results have only been reported for one-third of the contested seats so far. Consequently, the outcome of numerous key contests remains uncertain. Both the Conservatives and Labour are hopeful for more favorable updates as the day progresses.