Gurdaspur, Punjab, India – Ramesh Kumar, age 42, is nervously evaluating the prospects for this year’s crops. Positioned at the perimeter of his wheat field in Gurdaspur, Punjab, he is calculating fertiliser costs, anticipated yields, and market prices in his mind.
Despite the agricultural season being in motion, worries regarding expenses are mounting. "I don’t know if we can afford it this year," Ramesh contemplates as he weighs school fees, household expenses, loan repayments, and savings for his daughter Varsha's wedding. The prosperity of his farm is pivotal in shaping financial choices within his family.
"Everything depends on the crop," he emphasizes, remarking that rising fertiliser prices have shifted his focus from mere financial calculations to the broader ramifications for his family's well-being.
Fertiliser, once a reliable component for farming operations, has now become scarce and costly. Ramesh is apprehensive that further price increases could force him to make difficult decisions, including postponing his daughter's wedding or compromising his children's education.
For farmers like Ramesh, the ongoing US-Israel military operations against Iran, despite being situated thousands of kilometres away, have significant implications for their day-to-day lives.
A Distant Crisis with Local Consequences
The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime passage between Iran and Oman, stands at the center of the ongoing crisis. This pivotal route is essential for the global distribution of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), with roughly one-fifth of global supply traversing through it.
Iran's decision to close the strait shortly after the initiation of US-Israeli attacks on Tehran has led to disruptions that affect fertiliser shipments critically. Any delays in these shipments have severe consequences for farmers reliant on this vital resource, causing cost escalations and heightening food price inflation.
With nearly two billion people residing in South Asia, the region is heavily dependent on fertiliser-intensive agriculture to sustain key crops like wheat and rice. Agriculture accounts for a substantial segment of employment within countries such as India (46%), Pakistan (38%), Bangladesh (40%), and Nepal (over 60%).
In India, the agriculture sector is valued at $400 billion and supports a significant portion of the population. The nation imports a considerable part of its fertiliser requirements, with 30–35% of these imports passing through routes that intersect the Strait of Hormuz.
In Pakistan, agriculture contributes approximately 20% to the GDP and employs millions, with 20-25% of fertiliser imports contingent upon this strategic strait. Similarly, in Bangladesh, smallholder farmers find themselves vulnerable as their operations rely on imported fertiliser supplies.
As geopolitical tensions escalate and disrupt established trade routes, farmers throughout South Asia confront a precarious future—one that depends heavily on the conflict's outcome and its cascading effects on their livelihoods.
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