BBC
General Carsten Breuer is actively engaged in a critical endeavor. As the leader of Germany's armed forces, he holds a pivotal position, described as perhaps the most significant military role in Europe today. His primary responsibility involves rapidly expanding Germany's military capabilities, positioning the army to become the most formidable force on the continent.
Breuer articulates a pressing concern regarding Russia's sustained efforts to enhance its military through increased recruitment and investment in armaments, predicting that it will attain a level of strength sufficient to potentially threaten NATO territories by 2029.
"I've never experienced a situation which is as dangerous, as urgent, as it is today," he remarked during an interview at a military base in Munster, near the Dutch border.
He is managing a comprehensive expansion of the German armed forces, emphasizing that the nation must be prepared for future challenges. “So what we are seeing, what we are facing, is a threat from Russia. We can clearly see that Russia is building up its military to a strength which is nearly double the size of what they had before the war against Ukraine… In 2029 it will be possible for Russia to conduct a major war against NATO. And as a soldier I have to say 'okay, we have to be prepared for this'.”
Having enlisted in the army of West Germany in 1984 at the age of 19, Breuer’s demeanor is calm and reflective, lacking the stereotypical bravado often associated with military leaders. However, his determination to revitalize the German military and integrate it into a redefined European power dynamic is evident.
Under his leadership, the German military is witnessing a significant increase in both strength and personnel. Projections indicate that Germany will allocate €162bn (£140.2bn) to defense by 2029, a substantial rise from €95bn in 2025. Public opinion polls indicate substantial support for this military augmentation among the German populace.
Historically, a rearmament initiative of this magnitude would have raised alarms among Germany’s neighbors, evoking memories of the destructive wars of the 20th century that were largely orchestrated by German forces, resulting in extensive devastation across Europe.
After decades of military restraint as a means of reconciling with its past actions, the question arises: can Germany genuinely embrace its aspiration to ascend to Europe’s foremost military authority? If successful, how would it navigate this role within the context of European leadership?
A vivid testament to Germany's evolving role in Europe can be observed in Lithuania, where German troops are stationed permanently for the first time since the Nazi occupation. Currently, around 1,200 German personnel are deployed in Lithuania, with that number projected to nearly reach 5,000 by the close of next year.
The BBC observed the Panzerbrigade 45 (the 45th Armoured Brigade) conducting live-fire exercises in proximity to the border with Belarus, simulating potential defensive scenarios against eastern threats.
The snow-covered landscape is part of the Great European Plain, characterized by its flat terrain that offers minimal natural barriers, rendering it particularly susceptible to invasion. Historically, this region has witnessed numerous military campaigns; for instance, Napoleon's forces traversed this plain en route to Moscow in 1812, and similarly, German troops advanced to the gates of Moscow in 1941 during World War II.
Lieutenant Colonel Sebastian Hagen, commander of Panzerbrigade 45, emphasized Germany’s role in meeting the expectations of neighboring nations. "Our Chancellor [Friedrich Merz] announced that we are building up the most powerful conventional army in Europe. And I guess this fits with the role of Germany due to our economic strengths and also to our role in Europe. And we are not doing this alone, obviously, we are doing this in NATO and in the European Union."
The commitment to multilateralism in Germany's military endeavors is a recurring theme in discussions with military personnel. Germany is positioning itself not as a force of occupation, but rather as a cooperative ally within Europe, eager to contribute positively to collective security.
During the Cold War, Germany maintained over half a million armed forces personnel—always within NATO and under U.S. command. However, following the Soviet Union's dissolution, military strength dwindled to less than half of that level. Reports indicated that some recruits were training with broomsticks in lieu of rifles due to equipment shortages.
Between 2007 and 2017, Germany, as Europe's largest nation by population and strongest economy, allocated only about 1.2% of its GDP to defense, a reflection of its diminished focus on military matters and the prevailing complacency in Europe. Now, Germany has set a new defense spending target of 5% of its GDP.
In light of Russia's war in Ukraine, other European countries are also re-evaluating their military strategies. The UK has pledged to reach a 5% GDP defense spending target by 2035, while France aims for 3.5%. Nonetheless, these figures still trail behind Russia’s estimated military expenditure of 7.1% in 2024.
Germany’s rearmament initiative entails a fundamental shift in national attitudes toward military defense and the military's role in society. Following Germany’s defeat in World War II, the Allied leaders at the Potsdam Conference in 1945 agreed on the demilitarization of Germany. This principle was embraced by West Germany, which sought to make amends for past atrocities and allowed the U.S. to assume primary responsibility for its defense.
That era has seemingly concluded. In 2025, the German parliament modified the constitution to lift stringent borrowing constraints, enabling the expansion of its defense budget.
This change represents a significant cultural shift in Germany. "I would say it's been a cultural revolution," asserts Sophia Besch, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Institute for Peace in Washington D.C. "The Russian invasion of Ukraine has really changed the way that Germany approaches defense."
The landscape of American commitment to Europe has also altered. A notable moment was U.S. Vice-President JD Vance's address at last year’s Munich Security Conference shortly after Donald Trump’s inauguration, where he signaled that the U.S. would no longer ensure European security. Subsequent leaked communications revealed a dismissive attitude toward European allies within Trump’s administration, heightening concerns in Germany.
This development likely influenced Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s realization that European nations should pursue "operational independence" from the U.S. within NATO.
"Pretty much the entire underpinning of Germany's post-war settlement was based around the Transatlantic Alliance," noted John Kampfner, a journalist based in Berlin. "It was based on an assumption of American defense and security and political support. You could perhaps call it naive… But that sense of security has been blown asunder by the second Trump administration."
For post-war Germany, founded on ideals of a rules-based order, the deteriorating relationship with the U.S. has prompted a reassessment of security priorities. The war in Ukraine has further exacerbated the shift in perception regarding European security.
"We can call it a wake-up call," observes Breuer. "We were not able and not willing, once again, to push the snooze button on this… it was a huge step for Germany, a huge step for the German population, definitely."
Currently, Germany maintains approximately 182,000 active military personnel, with aspirations to increase this number by 20,000 within a year and up to 60,000 within the next decade. The army will also be complemented by a reserve force of 200,000.
To entice new recruits, a recruitment campaign targeting young individuals has been initiated, with discussions regarding reinstating conscription if necessary. The enthusiastic public support for increased military engagement bolsters Breuer’s case.
In February alone, 16,100 Germans expressed interest in joining the armed forces, a 20% increase from the previous year, with 5,300 new recruits—an increase of 14% compared to 2025.
Germany is also taking steps to reduce reliance on U.S. military supplies by increasing domestic munitions production, spurred by the relaxation of borrowing restrictions for defense expenditures. Many German manufacturers are pivoting from civilian production to military-focused output, aiming for greater self-sufficiency in defense capabilities.
Identifying essential elements for future military capability, Breuer emphasizes priorities including Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR), drone technology, precision strike capabilities, and advancements in space-related operations. The military is diligently working on these objectives and progressing toward fulfillment.
In response to inquiries about potentially leading Germany into war in Europe for the first time since 1945, Breuer clarified that his mission is centered on preparing Germany for self-defense rather than pursuing conflict: “What I'm doing is to prepare Germany to be able to defend itself, by building up those defense capabilities. This is deterrence for us. We will deter the threat from the Russian side.”
Essentially, the strategy involves preparing for conflict as a means to prevent it.
Regarding operational independence, with aspirations for a European defense establishment capable of independent actions, it is crucial to consider the vast fiscal disparity. The U.S. Department of Defense, for instance, is budgeted to spend $961.6bn (£716.9bn) this year, significantly surpassing Germany's planned expenditures and any projections from other NATO allies like Britain and France.
Sophia Besch notes, "When you look at the money, there's no way around it: Germany will shape the future of European defense and security. But I doubt that we will have one country in Europe that can fill the footsteps of the U.S. We are always looking for compromise."
Trust issues also arise from long-term U.S. support in European defense which has taken decades to cultivate; thus, establishing similar levels of confidence among European nations may require time.
The erosion of trust is evident, particularly among Germans, as confidence in the U.S. has significantly declined during Trump's second term. In a survey conducted by the Pew Center before Trump's re-election, 74% of Germans expressed faith in the U.S. relationship. By 2025, only 27% viewed relations favorably, compared to 73% holding a negative perspective.
A notable shift in regional dynamics can be observed in attitudes from Germany’s neighbors, where a militarized Germany once sparked anxiety. Presently, polls indicate that the German presence in Lithuania is well-received.
In a notable 2011 address, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslav Sikorski delivered a speech in Berlin urging Germany to assume a leadership role in Europe during a time of economic crisis, shifting the narrative amid memories of the Nazi occupation. He characterized Germany as Europe’s "indispensable nation" rather than a source of fear.
Retired Polish General Andrzek Falkowski confidently asserts that Germany’s rearmament is favorable for Poland, Europe, and NATO. With its historical militarism in mind, he acknowledges Poland's strategic vulnerabilities and recognizes Germany's recent rise as the fourth-largest military spender globally.
As the strongest economy in Europe, he expresses optimism about Germany’s increased defense expenditure, believing it to be a positive development for regional stability.
Throughout discussions with General Breuer, a recurrent emphasis on collaboration emerges, reflecting a cautious approach influenced by Germany's historical context.
In our concluding conversation, I inquired whether he felt the weight of leadership as one of the most prominent military figures within Europe. He responded thoughtfully to the question of responsibility: “I think I feel the responsibility every day, the responsibility for the forces I'm leading here in Germany. I'm one of 182,000 soldiers in Germany, and I feel the responsibility of leadership. I'm very glad to be part of this leadership team, because together we will face this and we will cope with this challenge. Definitely.”
The historical axiom surrounding NATO—that its purpose was to keep America engaged, Russia at bay, and Germany subdued—has shifted significantly. Eight decades later, Germany emerges not subdued, but re-armed and central to the evolving geopolitics of Europe.
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