A super El Niño threatens our food system. Here's how farms can prepare

With forecasters predicting that this year's El Niño could become the most intense on record, apprehensions regarding its impact on agriculture and food security are rising.

Although the United States may not experience the extensive effects seen in Central and South America, the Caribbean, and southern Africa, certain regions within the country could still face severe weather, leading to substantial crop losses.

As a researcher focused on farmers' responses to the climate crisis, I have observed these distressing occurrences become increasingly frequent: inundated fields, missed planting opportunities, and crops excessively stressed by drought that are no longer viable for harvest.

However, some farms have demonstrated a greater ability to withstand the extremes associated with this year's super El Niño, thanks to one essential method. During winter, when most fields lie dormant, these farms maintain growth.

Over the last 15 years, I have had the opportunity to observe some of the nation’s most resilient farms—those capable of absorbing heavy rainfall while their neighbors contend with significant standing water, and those achieving 80% of their average yields in years when they encounter just 40% of their average moisture.

The secret to their resilience lies in their ability to progressively enhance the carbon-rich organic matter in their soil, which enables the land to absorb and retain moisture akin to a sponge.

Farmers employ a variety of practices to achieve this, but a core principle is to maintain roots in the soil year-round, accomplished through two primary methods. Farmers can either plant soil-enriching cover crops during the off-season or cultivate perennial plants, which endure for multiple years.

Researchers Andrea Basche and Marcia DeLonge found that implementing either of these practices increases the space between soil particles by 8%, facilitating water movement into and through the soil. While this may seem minimal, Basche and DeLonge discovered that it results in an additional 16% of water being available to plants during drought conditions.

Having roots in place is particularly vital when significant rainfall occurs—a scenario that forecasters anticipate across the southern half of the US this winter. Cover crops can enhance the infiltration of these rainstorms by 35%, while perennials can improve it by 59%, which is often sufficient to absorb a heavy rain event of 1 inch per hour.

This is advantageous not only for farms but also for reducing the risk of downstream flooding, positioning cover crops and perennials as a formidable form of green infrastructure. Basche and DeLonge found that if one third of Iowa's cropland adopted perennials or cover crops, it would decrease water runoff and flood frequency by one fifth during particularly wet years.

Many farmers recognize this adaptable risk management strategy and have devised a range of inventive methods to integrate cover crops and perennials into their agricultural plans.

Some cultivate fruit and nut trees in rows interspersed with annual crops. Others establish berry bushes as hedgerows at the borders of their fields or experiment with newly developed perennial grains. Some graze livestock on perennial pastures, while others plant strips of native prairie between rows of corn and soy, a practice identified by Iowa State University researchers as reducing sediment loss by 95%.

Regrettably, if one drives through the principal farming regions of the country, they are unlikely to see many cover crops or perennials. While these practices diminish farmers' long-term risk of crop loss, they often elevate their short-term risk of income reduction.

This dichotomy arises because the current US crop insurance system primarily incentivizes farmers to cultivate traditional commodities such as corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton. Insurance for these historical 20th-century crops is heavily subsidized, allowing farmers to sustain a complete harvest loss without significant financial repercussions.

In contrast, for crops like elderberries or hazelnuts, farmers face considerable risk, as they rely on the Whole Farm Revenue Protection program, which is widely regarded within the industry as insufficient. Moreover, as perennials require several years to mature and begin yielding produce, farmers need alternative support during this period.

As the Super El Niño intensifies this fall, Congress is deliberating over the farm bill—a crucial opportunity that arises once a decade to bolster the resilience of our food system.

Embedded within this extensive legislation are programs designed to assist farmers who wish to incorporate cover crops and perennials, such as the Conservation Stewardship Program and the Environmental Quality Incentives Program. Currently, Senate Republicans are advocating for cuts to funding for these initiatives and have not considered meaningful reforms to the crop insurance system, contributing to the setbacks faced in advancing the bill.

Nevertheless, there remains time to act: perhaps this Super El Niño will serve as a catalyst for a much-needed investment in the resilience of American farms.