Fortune
As a former USDA official representing Mexican avocado importers, I invite you to consider the implications of America's nearly 30-year relationship with the avocado.
Currently, the U.S. is revisiting the USMCA, and recent congressional proposals for new limits on Mexican avocado imports have reignited the discussion on how best to bolster support for California growers.
The introduction of tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) will not resolve the specific challenges and production costs faced by California's avocado farmers. Rather, these measures are likely to complicate the economic landscape, creating supply constraints that threaten jobs, public health, and consumer affordability in the U.S. Seasonal TRQs would restrict Mexican avocado imports during the March to September period—when they constitute approximately half of U.S. supply—resulting in price increases while neglecting the root causes of California growers' financial challenges.
It is essential to acknowledge the genuine concerns of American farmers, who deserve policies that foster competition and promote sustainability. Producers in California are contending with considerable pressures, including elevated costs related to inputs, land, and water resources.
The History
The entry of Mexican avocados into the U.S. market occurred incrementally, beginning with Alaska in 1993. In 1997, the USDA permitted the importation of Mexican Hass avocados in 19 northeastern states for a limited season. Full-year access across all 50 states was granted on February 1, 2007, despite legal opposition from California growers against the earlier market expansions. Although some states had begun receiving Mexican avocados in 1997, nationwide availability was realized only a decade later.
According to data from the USDA, the consumption of avocados in the United States has surged more than sevenfold since the late 1990s, escalating from approximately 424 million pounds in the 1998/99 period to an anticipated 3.25 billion pounds by 2024/25.
Avocados have transitioned from a niche product to an everyday staple in the American diet. By 2024/25, per capita avocado consumption reached 9.5 pounds annually, a substantial increase from just 1.52 pounds in 1998/99.
The Supply Math
Domestic avocado production in the U.S. is falling short of meeting skyrocketing consumer demand. In 2025, California boasted around 49,300 acres of bearing avocado farmland, yielding an average of 6,940 pounds per acre. In contrast, the U.S. imported nearly 2.9 billion pounds of avocados that year, with Mexico accounting for 83% of these imports. This disparity underscores that California's production capabilities cannot single-handedly suffice for the volume previously supplied by Mexico.
The Tomato Comparison
Recent agricultural trade policies illustrate the tangible impacts on grocery prices. Following the loss of duty-free status for Mexican tomatoes, U.S. prices for tomatoes soared nearly 40% within a year, outpacing overall food price inflation of 17%. Although factors such as adverse weather conditions and escalating production costs also contributed, this scenario highlights how trade restrictions can exacerbate existing supply challenges, ultimately leading to higher costs for consumers.
Economic Impact
A recent economic impact analysis conducted by Texas A&M University researchers revealed that imports of Mexican Hass avocados generated an estimated $7.1 billion in economic output in the U.S. and supported over 37,000 jobs during the fiscal year 2025/26. The study noted that the economic contributions associated with these imports have surged by over 320% since fiscal year 2012/13, despite fluctuations due to variations in import volumes and pricing.
This economic ripple effect also extends to California. The findings suggest that Mexican Hass avocado imports accounted for nearly $968 million in economic output and supported more than 5,300 jobs statewide during the same fiscal year, benefitting various sectors, including transportation, distribution, retail, and additional services. These results demonstrate California's integration into the economic ecosystem spurred by avocado imports, despite the competitive pressures faced by local growers.
What Will Help Growers
California avocado producers confront significant challenges, such as escalating labor and water costs and increasing regulatory burdens. Addressing these issues necessitates the adoption of targeted policies aimed at enhancing water efficiency and controlling rising production costs. Importantly, supporting domestic growers should not come at the expense of a reliable and integrated North American avocado supply chain, as both objectives need to be pursued in unison.
The Economic Stakes for America
Mexican avocado imports have been pivotal in fulfilling the increasing demand from American consumers, expanding the overall avocado market, and bolstering job creation in the U.S. It is entirely feasible to provide support for American farmers without imposing additional burdens on households and workers. While enhancing the conditions for growers is a legitimate aim, it remains essential to critically assess whether TRQs will achieve this, and I believe that they will not.
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