Tom Cruise film Digger forecast to become one of Hollywood's biggest flops

By Steven McIntosh, Entertainment reporter

Published 12 October 2026, 12:29 BST

Industry analysts have projected that Tom Cruise's latest film Digger could incur losses of approximately $245 million (£185 million) due to its ongoing lackluster box office performance.

Sales for this satirical black comedy, which features Cruise in the role of oil magnate Digger Rockwell, experienced a staggering 60% decline during its second weekend in theaters.

Currently, Digger has accumulated a total box office gross of about $35 million (£26 million) globally. The film's production and marketing costs are estimated to have reached approximately $280 million (£211 million).

In response to questions about the film's box office trajectory, Cruise stated last week that he "never thought of movies when I'm making them [in terms of] opening weekend," emphasizing his commitment to creating films that "hopefully will translate, last and evolve."

Given the relationship between Digger's revenue and its production budget, it is poised to potentially rank among the most significant financial flops in Hollywood's history.

This places Digger in the same category as films that have lost over $100 million, including titles such as Cutthroat Island (1995), The Adventures of Pluto Nash (2002), Sahara (2005), and John Carter (2012).

Other films estimated to have incurred nine-figure losses include Mars Needs Moms (2011), Amsterdam (2022), The 13th Warrior (1999), The Marvels (2023), and Speed Racer (2008).

Digger's underwhelming box office performance starkly contrasts with the successes of Cruise's recent franchise entries, such as the latest installments of Top Gun and Mission: Impossible.

According to the Hollywood trade publication Variety, projections suggest Digger will conclude its box office run with approximately $50 million (£38 million) globally.

To achieve break-even status, the film would need to generate around $350 million (£264 million), which accounts for its production and marketing expenses, the portion of ticket sales allocated to theaters, and anticipated spending on an awards season campaign.

However, a spokesperson for Warner Bros. contested this estimate slightly, stating that the breakeven point sits at $300 million (£227 million).

Digger marked the studio's last standalone release before its recent acquisition by Paramount.

Directed by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, acclaimed for films such as Birdman, Babel, and The Revenant, Digger received generally poor critical reviews, leading Warner Bros. to initiate a fresh marketing effort encouraging audiences to "decide for yourself."

The Social Reckoning also struggles

In addition, the newly released sequel to the Oscar-winning film The Social Network, titled The Social Reckoning, faced significant challenges at the box office during its opening weekend.

The Social Reckoning garnered only $5.5 million (£4.1 million) in the US, a sharp decline from the $22 million (£16 million) that its predecessor earned during its debut weekend in 2010, not adjusted for inflation.

Globally, Aaron Sorkin's latest film, featuring Mikey Madison, Jeremy Strong, and Jeremy Allen White, has collected around $9 million (£6.8 million).

The film narrates the true story of Facebook engineer Frances Haugen, who leaked internal documents to a journalist due to concerns regarding the company’s practices.

In its debut weekend, The Social Reckoning was outperformed at the US box office by the horror film Other Mommy, psychological thriller Verity, the video game adaptation Resident Evil, and Brad Pitt's wilderness thriller Heart of the Beast.