A Google employee allegedly used inside information to win $1.2 million on Polymarket

Federal prosecutors have filed fraud charges against a Google employee, Michele Spagnuolo, who is accused of generating $1.2 million in profits through bets placed on Polymarket associated with search trends for the year 2025. According to the recently unsealed complaint, Spagnuolo allegedly accessed confidential and commercially valuable internal data from Google, which provided him with advance knowledge of the outcomes for these bets. Following his arrest in New York on Wednesday, he was subsequently released on a $2.25 million bond and faces charges that include commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering.

Spagnuolo placed his bets on Polymarket using the username AlphaRacoon, with his predictions gaining attention from various media outlets, including Forbes, and generating discussion on social media in December. Notably, he accurately predicted that the artist D4vd would become "the #1 searched person on Google" in 2025, a result that Polymarket had assigned a "near-zero probability," as noted in the complaint.

Additionally, Spagnuolo bet that public figures Pope Leo XIV and Kendrick Lamar would not appear on Google's "Year in Search 2025" lists, a determination that is inherently challenging due to the methodology employed in their calculation. Google ranks search terms based on the "highest increase in traffic"—rather than the total search volume—between January 1, 2025, and November 25, 2025. As described by Google, this approach allows the identification of trends that are distinctive to the year in question.

The complaint further asserts that after winning, Spagnuolo took intentional measures to conceal his misuse of nonpublic information by attempting to obscure the origin and ownership of the funds acquired through these illegal activities. In a separate case last month, federal prosecutors charged U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke with fraud for allegedly placing a $400,000 bet on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro via Polymarket.

In light of concerns regarding insider trading, several states have moved towards regulating prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. However, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and former President Donald Trump have opposed these efforts, asserting that the CFTC possesses "exclusive" authority over prediction markets.

In response to the allegations, Polymarket stated that it is committed to maintaining integrity within its platform, highlighting that its "market integrity infrastructure" had flagged Spagnuolo's activities. The company emphasized the transparent and traceable nature of blockchain trading, noting that those who engage in unscrupulous activities leave identifiable traces.

Google spokesperson Jaclyn Vazquez commented on the situation, stating, "The employee accessed our marketing material using a tool available to all employees, but using such confidential information to place bets is a serious breach of our policies. We've placed the employee on leave and will take the appropriate action."