Fertiliser boss says war puts 10 billion meals a week at risk

The ongoing Middle East conflict is creating a critical threat to global food security, with supply chain disruptions potentially eliminating up to 10 billion meals per week, according to a leading fertiliser industry executive.

Svein Tore Holsether, Chief Executive of Yara, one of the world's largest fertiliser manufacturers, highlighted the severe implications of blocked shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption is significantly impacting the supply of fertilisers and their essential ingredients, with the most vulnerable populations in developing nations bearing the greatest burden.

Speaking to the BBC, Holsether emphasised that the conflict's impact extends far beyond regional boundaries, fundamentally threatening global agricultural productivity and food availability.

The reduction in crop yields resulting from decreased fertiliser availability could trigger an international competition for food resources, creating dangerous inequalities between nations with different economic capacities.

"We're experiencing a shortage of up to half a million tons of nitrogen fertiliser in global production due to the current situation," Holsether explained. "This translates to approximately 10 billion fewer meals produced weekly as a direct consequence of fertiliser shortages."

The agricultural impact is immediate and severe. Without adequate nitrogen fertiliser application, certain crops could experience yield reductions of up to 50% within a single growing season, creating cascading effects throughout the global food system.

Farmers worldwide are confronting an unprecedented convergence of challenges. While production costs continue to escalate across multiple fronts, commodity prices have not adjusted proportionally to offset these increased expenses.

"Agricultural producers are dealing with rising energy costs, higher diesel prices for equipment operation, increased costs for various farming inputs, and elevated fertiliser prices," Holsether noted. "However, crop prices have not increased at the same rate, creating significant financial pressure."

International Food Competition

Market analysis reveals that fertiliser prices have surged by 80% since the conflict began, creating additional strain on global agricultural systems.

Continued hostilities could establish a concerning pattern where wealthy nations outbid developing countries for available food supplies, exacerbating existing inequalities and threatening food security in vulnerable regions.

"If Europe enters a competitive bidding situation for food supplies, which our economic resilience can support, we must consider the broader implications," Holsether cautioned. "The critical question becomes: from whom are we purchasing this food, and at what cost to more vulnerable populations?"

This dynamic particularly affects developing nations, where populations lack the economic resources to compete in escalated food markets. The consequences extend beyond immediate availability to encompass "food affordability, food scarcity, and hunger," according to the Yara executive.

While the United Kingdom is unlikely to experience absolute food shortages, the increased costs facing agricultural producers are expected to impact consumer prices in the coming months. The Food and Drink Federation projects that food inflation could reach 10% by year-end, reflecting the broader economic pressures throughout the supply chain.

The situation underscores the interconnected nature of global food systems and the far-reaching consequences of regional conflicts on international food security and economic stability.